“Evaluating the effect of viral posts on social media engagement,” authored by Emanuele Sangiorgio, Niccolò Di Marco, and Gabriele Etta in cooperation with the Department of Social Sciences and Economics at Sapienza University of Rome, the Department of Computer Science at Sapienza University of Rome, and the Université d’Angers, explores how viral posts on Facebook and YouTube influence audience engagement. Drawing from more than a thousand European news outlets between 2018 and 2023, the study evaluates the significance of quick bursts of visibility versus long-term growth strategies, concluding that short-lived surges of popularity rarely guarantee a stable expansion of user involvement. For entrepreneurs and senior executives, these findings offer a clear reminder: focusing on social media engagement strategies that prioritize methodical, sustainable approaches to content creation and community building is far more impactful than relying solely on quick viral events.
Social Media Engagement Strategies: Exploring Virality for Sustainable Results
The modern attention economy, in which user focus is the most coveted resource, forms the backdrop of this investigation. Platforms like Facebook and YouTube can distribute material worldwide with astonishing speed. While virality is typically thought of as a force that drives massive, immediate exposure, the statistical evidence from this broad sample of European media outlets shows that viral content rarely translates into sustained growth for the source. Indeed, posts that generate sudden spikes in visibility often fail to create tangible momentum over the long run.From a scientific perspective, there is substantial interest in why certain posts go viral while others of equal or superior quality remain unnoticed.
Many hypotheses center on the emotional or polarizing characteristics of highly shared material, as well as the structural factors—such as sharing mechanisms or recommendation algorithms—that help certain posts soar. The research led by Sangiorgio and his colleagues attempts to identify which viral elements can truly give an outlet or brand a competitive edge. The results point toward a crucial caveat: although viral trends may attract viewers and reactions, they do not necessarily translate into permanent benefits for the organization behind them.
Analyzing Social Media Engagement Strategies on Facebook and YouTube
The authors implemented a sophisticated quantitative strategy to examine the long-term impact of viral posts, anchored by a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model. (BSTS is a statistical method that estimates the influence of specific events over time while accounting for external factors like seasonality or changes in publishing frequency.) Alongside BSTS, the researchers employed a Comparative Interrupted Time-Series (CITS) design to compare user engagement—expressed in Likes, Comments, and Shares on Facebook, or Likes and Comments on YouTube—before and after the appearance of a viral post.
Initially, the concept of engagement was defined by creating mathematical functions to measure daily user interactions for each outlet. On Facebook, engagement levels were determined via the log formula TI_ijt = ln(Likes_ij + Comments_ij + Shares_ij). On YouTube, the researchers used TI_ijt = ln(Likes_ij + Comments_ij). These calculations effectively captured the user response and involvement across platforms, despite each platform’s different interaction style.Additionally, to capture how fast content travels, each platform was assessed using distinct measurements. On Facebook, the spreading metric was S_ijt = ln(Shares_ij / Followers_it), which links the number of shares to the page’s total followers. On YouTube, the research team used S_ijt = ln(Views_ij) to track how many people watched a video.
Through these metrics, the study sought to isolate the specific effects of viral content from other variables in play, allowing for a more credible picture of how these posts actually influence a page’s trajectory.After downloading millions of posts via tools such as CrowdTangle (for Facebook) and the YouTube API, the researchers streamlined the dataset, retaining content published by over a thousand active European news outlets with consistent publishing records from 2018 to 2023. By gradually expanding the observation window (for instance, from two weeks to four and six weeks), they tested whether an identified viral peak might endure or fade quickly. BSTS then offered a statistical snapshot of how persistent or transient each viral effect was, often revealing that short-term surges in engagement did not lead to any significant long-term advantage. This was further confirmed by p values, which showed that in many instances, the engagement fluctuations following a viral post lacked statistical relevance.
Virality in Social Media Engagement: Patterns of Attention Growth
Using their extensive dataset, the researchers singled out two primary types of viral events, each reflecting distinct dynamics in how attention is generated and sustained. The first, known as the “loaded type,” is characterized by a gradual increase in engagement leading up to the viral release. In these situations, attention seems to be “charged” before culminating in an eye-catching spike, typically followed by a drop-off that returns metrics to pre-peak levels.The second pattern, called the “sudden type,” appears abruptly, without any preceding growth trend. Here, the viral moment acts as a jolt that reignites collective interest for a short period. Engagement numbers may shoot upward almost instantly, providing a fleeting but meaningful lift. However, once the excitement dissipates, the data often reverts to near-baseline levels—sometimes slightly above, sometimes simply returning to the norm.
This reveals a crucial truth about virality: while these posts may cause sudden waves of attention, their ongoing capacity to boost brand loyalty or awareness remains unpredictable.For business leaders, these trends emphasize that chasing a single high impact, emotionally charged viral post is rarely a reliable tactic for cultivating a loyal following. Instead, the study argues for a more methodical content strategy designed to sustain user interest over time. By drawing a distinction between short-lived spikes and longer, steadier attention patterns, the research suggests that focusing on frequent, high-quality updates can be more advantageous in the long run.
Social Media Engagement Strategies: Viral Effects for Business Success
One of the study’s more striking observations is that a viral surge with very rapid initial growth often fails to sustain its audience’s interest. When a post gains attention almost immediately—within the first week or two—the data shows that it is also more likely to lose momentum quickly. Conversely, a slower-building viral trajectory may stand a slightly better chance of yielding a durable boost in interaction and loyalty.In practical terms, this means a lightning-fast success story might not truly anchor new followers or customers. A steady, methodical approach, on the other hand, can encourage stronger ties with the audience. Though a spectacular post might create conversation for a few days, relying exclusively on such sporadic moments is risky. Social media users are highly selective and prone to quickly shifting their gaze to whatever content is fresh or trending.
Therefore, managers and marketing teams should regard social media planning not as a quest for a single “knockout punch,” but as an ongoing process that aligns each new post with the brand’s greater purpose. An example might involve a consultancy firm that dedicates itself to releasing regular articles or videos on specialized topics, earning credibility over time. A sensational, provocative post can certainly stir the pot for a moment, but without consistency, that energy typically fades, leaving negligible impact on brand loyalty or user trust. The study also advises caution when generalizing to every domain, as much of its data stems from news media; yet even in entertainment and influencer marketing, attention often follows a similar pattern of quick surges and subsequent decline.
Social Media Engagement Strategies: Practical Approaches for Lasting Growth
From an operations standpoint, the core lesson is clear: marketers and decision-makers should exercise caution when pinning their hopes on one viral highlight. Instead, they can gain an edge by using advanced analytical tools, such as Bayesian structural time series, to evaluate whether sudden spikes in engagement truly alter the long-term performance of their social media pages. If those surges prove fleeting, resources may be better directed to regular content updates, consistent storytelling, and measured audience engagement.Consider, for instance, a local media outlet that garners a burst of Facebook shares by posting real-time updates on a major community event. While that short-term boost might look promising on the surface, long-term benefits are uncertain if the outlet fails to follow up with more well-rounded reporting. A more sustained approach—like offering in-depth features and interactive polls—could create a habit among readers to visit the page regularly, ensuring more stable growth in engagement. Rather than gambling on occasional spikes, businesses are encouraged to weave their social content into a broader plan that prioritizes thoughtful, timely, and continuous communication.
Conclusions and Key Takeaways
The study “Evaluating the effect of viral posts on social media engagement” dispels the assumption that a viral crescendo automatically lays the groundwork for future success. The reality is more nuanced: many viral achievements offer only brief excitement, lacking the power to foster genuine, long-term connections with audiences. From an executive perspective, it becomes essential to weigh the potential benefits of viral content against the advantages of well-structured editorial calendars and consistent branding initiatives. While viral stunts can capture immediate attention, they do not necessarily translate into lasting affinity or higher conversion rates, particularly in competitive markets teeming with new creators trying their hand at the same tactic. By demonstrating quantitatively that viral posts rarely reshape the medium- to long-term engagement curve, this research underscores the necessity for methods that focus on sustained continuity. The strongest competitive advantages emerge from ongoing commitments to cultivating user interest, building brand identity, and deepening trust. Once the viral flash fades, what often endures is the brand’s capacity to serve its audience repeatedly and reliably.
Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13549